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2024-12-14 04:38:04

On November 8, I suggested that the reason for lightening the position was that if it continued to rise here, there would be a technical deviation at the daily level after closing at 3489.78 points. The same is true of the pressure now. As long as it closes at 3470.66 points today, it will form a technical deviation.Hang Seng Index futures closed early, so the feedback was not the actual situation. The A50 futures index exploded by more than 4 points at the end of the session, and the night market rose by 0.84%, so today it depends entirely on the opening of A shares. If it exceeds 3,500 points, the benefits will be directly digested. Once the funds can't keep up, it should be a high probability event to open higher and go lower.Secondly, the status of the stock market has obviously risen, but the last 500 billion swap facility+300 billion loan repurchase just pulled the index to 3509 points. This time, the expectation lies in the medium and long term. In addition to fighting chicken blood in the short term, it is not as effective as the substantial payment in early November. Don't rush to chase after it.


On the weekend, the official media continued to warm up. Yesterday, A shares were tepid, and they were even maliciously smashed in the afternoon! As a result, after the close of trading, there was a favorable level of king explosion. At least the periphery has gone crazy, so how will A shares go today? How should we deal with it?In another case, if it opens higher and goes lower today, and the closing price does not exceed 3470.66 points, then the short-term estimate will continue to step back and digest. On the contrary, this situation is a good thing. We only need to deal with it with high throwing and low sucking, and then we will have a real acceleration cycle after we gain momentum again.1. This time, boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand are put in the first place, which is basically consistent with the official media preheating. But I emphasized this piece yesterday. It's not that everyone doesn't want to spend, but that they don't have money to spend. It depends on whether the money issued by the special national debt can be cashed in, which will benefit big consumption in the short term, but the overall increase of this piece is really not small. Don't blindly chase after it.


Overnight, the external stock markets were mixed, and the three major indexes of the United States weakened collectively, while the Chinese stock index rose by 8.35% and the A50 index rose by 0.84%. The external sentiment was obviously beneficial to China assets. Therefore, there is no suspense in opening higher today, but if the opening is too large, it is not a good thing.First of all, the policy combination boxing includes not only monetary policy, but also fiscal policy. Some brokers have predicted that deficit ratio will increase from 3% to 4%. Of course, this needs to be verified later. It's just that fiscal stimulus is a moderate rhythm of releasing water, not to mention that it hasn't been introduced yet, at least don't expect this batch of funds to flow into A shares quickly.Today, my specific operation is as follows:

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